Nigeria’s Economic Growth Insufficient To Reduce Unemployment, Poverty —IMF

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THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that Nigeria’s economic growth rate is insufficient to reduce the country’s unemployment and poverty.

According to IMF, “At 0.8 per cent, growth in 2017 will not be sufficient to make a dent in reducing unemployment and poverty.”

Unemployment rate in Nigeria currently stands at 14.2 per cent, while about 112million people live below poverty line, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

IMF also noted that near-term vulnerabilities and risks to economic recovery and macroeconomic and financial stability are very high in the country.

The body said this in a statement issued on Wednesday at the end of visit by its staff to Nigeria to discuss recent economic and financial developments, update macroeconomic projections, and review reform implementation.

The team was led by Amine Mati, IMF’s Senior Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria.

Providing the rationale for its submission, IMF stated that “Concerns about delays in policy implementation, a reversal of favorable external market conditions, possible shortfalls in agricultural and oil production, additional fiscal pressures, continued market segmentation in a foreign exchange market that remains dependent on central bank interventions, and banking system fragilities represent the main risks to the outlook.”

The team held discussions with senior government and central bank officials. It also met with members of parliament, representatives of the banking system, private sectors, civil society, and international development partners.

IMF also noted that “The economic backdrop remains challenging, despite some signs of relief in the first half of 2017. Economic activity contracted in the first quarter of the year by 0.6 per cent, mainly as maintenance stoppages reduced oil production.”

Acknowledging some progress, the body said, “However, following four quarters of negative growth, the non-oil economy grew by 0.6 per cent (year-on-year), on the back of a rebound in manufacturing and continued strong performance in agriculture. Various indicators suggest an uptick in activity in the second quarter of the year. Helped by favorable base effects, headline inflation decreased to 16.1 per cent in June 2017, but remains high despite tight liquidity conditions.”

It added, “Preliminary data for the first half of the year indicate significant revenue shortfalls, with the interest-payments to revenue ratio remaining high (40 percent at end-June) and projected to increase further under current policies. High domestic bond yields and tight liquidity continue to crowd out private sector credit. Given Nigeria’s low growth environment and the banking system’s exposure to the oil and gas sector, non-performing loans increased from 6 percent in 2015 to 15 per cent in March 2017 (8 per cent after excluding the four undercapitalized banks).

“Faced with these challenges, the government has started implementing a number of important measures. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) is driving the diversification strategy, and security in the Niger Delta improved through strengthened engagement. The new Investor and Exporter FX window has provided impetus to portfolio inflows, helped increase reserves above $30 billion, and contributed to reducing the parallel market premium.

“Important steps have also been taken in implementing the power sector recovery plan, introducing a voluntary income and asset declaration program and moving forward the 60-day national action plan to improve the business environment. Progress is also ongoing within the oil and energy sector through implementation of a new funding mechanism for cash calls.”

Proffering a solution, IMF said, “Acting on an appropriate and coherent set of policies to enhance an economic recovery remains urgent. This includes implementing immediately specific priorities that will help achieve the goals of the ERGP.

“In the near term, a stronger push for front-loaded fiscal consolidation through a sustainable increase in non-oil revenues would be needed to create space for infrastructure spending, social protection, and private sector credit.

“This should be simultaneously accompanied by a monetary policy that avoids direct financing of the government and is kept sufficiently tight, a unified and market-based exchange rate, and rapid implementation of structural reforms. Pursuing these policies would help reduce macroeconomic vulnerabilities and create an environment for a diversified private-sector led economy.”

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