As the countdown to the 2027 governorship election in Kwara State begins, the ruling All Progressives Congress finds itself at a critical crossroads. The emerging battle lines between Senator Oyelola Ashiru’s governorship ambition and the quiet but deliberate succession signals from Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq have exposed deeper questions about leadership quality, political sincerity, and the future of governance in the state.
This is not merely a contest of individuals. It is a referendum on whether Kwara will choose substance over sentiment, accessibility over aloofness, and leadership over entitlement.
Senator Oyelola Ashiru: Legislative experience and the Question of reach
There is no disputing the fact that Senator Oyelola Ashiru possesses legislative experience. As a ranking Senator representing Kwara South, he has facilitated constituency projects typical of federal representation: borehole drilling, selected road interventions, and empowerment initiatives.
These achievements are verifiable within the framework of constituency project implementation.
However, governance especially at the level of a governor demands more than the facilitation of projects. It requires presence, connection, responsiveness, and emotional intelligence. On this score, Senator Ashiru faces a credibility crisis.
Observers and even loyal party members increasingly argue that his projects appear heavily concentrated in Offa Local Government, his home base, leaving other areas of Kwara South with minimal visible impact.
More troubling, however, are persistent complaints about poor accessibility. In a political environment where trust is built through engagement, stories of unanswered calls, prolonged silence, and distant leadership have become politically damaging.
A state battling rising security challenges, rural banditry, and socio-economic fragility cannot afford a governor perceived as detached or slow to respond. Legislative experience, no matter how impressive, cannot compensate for a leadership style viewed as nonchalant or elitist.
Put bluntly, many now question whether Senator Ashiru’s ambition is driven by capacity to govern or merely by political progression.
Governor AbdulRazaq: Reformist Legacy, Contradictory Succession Signals
Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq rode to power in 2019 on the back of the historic O to ge movement, dismantling entrenched political dominance and redefining Kwara’s political order. His administration can credibly point to tangible achievements, including:
- Educational reforms, including massive school renovations and recruitment of teachers
- Healthcare revitalisation, particularly at the primary healthcare level
- Fiscal discipline, marked by clearing salary arrears and improving public finance transparency
- Infrastructure renewal, with road projects spread across the state
- Security collaboration, supporting federal and local efforts amid regional instability
- And very recently, promotion of traditional Rulers in the state
These accomplishments give the Governor moral authority within the APC and explain why his body language carries enormous political weight.
Yet, it is precisely this weight that now raises uncomfortable questions.
Political observers increasingly believe the Governor is subtly positioning power to shift to Kwara North Senatorial District, allegedly through the tacit promotion of the current Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly.
While the equity argument for Kwara North is compelling given its historical marginalisation, the manner of execution has drawn criticism.
The visible mobilisation by the Governor’s political allies, strategic media appearances, and calculated endorsements suggest a manufactured succession, not an open contest.
Ironically, this approach mirrors the godfatherism the AbdulRazaq administration once condemned as the defining flaw of the old political order under the late Dr Olusola Saraki dynasty.
The contradiction is not lost on politically conscious Kwarans.
Zoning Is Not Governance
There is a legitimate argument that Kwara North deserves a shot at the governorship. Equity matters. Inclusion matters. But competence matters more.
Zoning alone cannot substitute for experience, statewide acceptance, or administrative depth. The concern many observers raise is whether sentiment is being prioritised over substance and whether Kwara is being asked to accept a leadership experiment at a time when the stakes are dangerously high.
The Real Question for 2027
As 2027 approaches, the choice before Kwara is stark:
A Senator with experience but plagued by concerns over accessibility and people management.
Or a succession plan driven by incumbency power but tainted by contradictions and perceived political engineering.
Kwara does not need a governor who is distant, nor does it need one who is anointed. It needs a leader who is present, responsive, courageous, and accountable.
Governance is too critical to be reduced to ambition, zoning arithmetic, or political loyalty.
The future of Kwara must not be negotiated behind closed doors, it must be earned in the open, before the people.
*Otunba Tunde Falola Esq is an Abuja based Legal Practitioner
