The year 2024 was a transformative period for Nigeria, marked by significant events that shaped the country’s trajectory. As we enter 2025, the New Year will likely be as eventful, with several key events poised to influence the country’s future.
Key Events to Watch
- Controversial Tax Reform Bills: The debates surrounding tax reform are expected to continue, potentially impacting the economy and citizens.
- Nigerian Constitution Amendment: Efforts to amend the constitution could significantly change the country’s legal framework.
- Scheming for 2027 General Elections: Political manoeuvring and alliances will likely intensify as the next election cycle approaches.
- Local Government Autonomy: The push for greater autonomy at the local level may lead to changes in governance structures and decision-making processes.
- PDP Convention: The opposition party’s convention will be crucial in shaping their strategy and candidate selection for upcoming elections.
- Realignment of Forces: Shifts in political alliances and coalitions may lead to new power dynamics and potentially alter the course of future elections.
These events will likely contribute to Nigeria’s dynamic and unpredictable political landscape in the months ahead.
Tax Reform Bills
President Bola Tinubu’s tax reform initiative still generates controversy in the polity. On October 3, 2024, President Tinubu transmitted the four tax reform bills to the National Assembly for consideration, following the recommendations of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal and Tax Reforms, headed by Taiwo Oyedele, to review existing tax laws.
Though the reform initiative has been applauded as the right step towards restructuring, it has reopened the traditional rigid dichotomy between the North and the South. The governors of the 19 Northern states, traditional rulers, and other stakeholders vehemently resisted the bill’s introduction, saying it would make the region poorer.
As such, the 36 state governors are sharply divided. While their counterparts in the South have endorsed the bill, they are demanding its removal from the National Assembly to facilitate additional consultations.
The National Economic Council (NEC), composed of 36 governors and chaired by the Vice President, had rejected the bill, but the National Assembly has yet to take a categorical decision.
In the end, how the stakeholders resolve the raging controversy will determine the socio-economic stability of the polity in the New Year and beyond.
Constitution amendment
The current National Assembly is undergoing another review process as part of the effort to develop a constitution that will address some of Nigeria’s many problems.
At its maiden meeting, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, Chairman of the 47-member Constitution Review Committee, stated that the amendment would be concluded in 2026.
“It is important to note that the committee is not constituted to rewrite the 1999 Constitution but to process proposed amendments to it, and we will strive to conclude this assignment within the next 24 months,” he said.
This implies that consultations, public hearings, and other procedural processes will be largely done this year to meet the deadline. Some of the critical issues the amendment is expected to address include the agitation for state creation and the creation of state police.
On these issues, the committee will need to consult strongly and engage critical stakeholders to ensure that bills passed by the National Assembly are approved and assent to by the president.
A constitutional amendment requires lobbying and a clear and transparent process to be accepted by the critical stakeholders.
The amendment offers another opportunity to address the fundamental problems causing incessant separatist agitations and heightened insecurity across all sections of the country.
For security concerns, the creation of state police has been at the heart of the problem of insecurity that has claimed the lives of several innocent citizens. At the recent meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima, 36 states agreed on the recommendations for the creation of state police.
The Kaduna State governor, Uba Sani, disclosed the development while addressing journalists in Abuja and said a definite position would be taken on January 25.
There is cautious optimism that successfully completing the review will allow the formation of state police and help address the nation’s security challenges.
Senate President Godswill Akpabio, while inauguration the committee, explained that the 1999 constitution needed a review because it contained many issues that should be “put right.”
Nigerians would be looking forward to seeing the direction of the process in the months ahead.
Realignment of political forces
In politics, the end of one election cycle is usually the beginning of another. The tenure of President Tinubu’s current administration is gradually inching towards its midterm. This year, there will be an expected increase in the tempo of political activities, leading to the realignment of forces ahead of the 2027 next general elections.
There have been speculations of possible merger arrangements among the leading opposition political parties. Under all circumstances, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) will likely attempt to unite this year.
This is imperative as the three parties are so internally divided that no single one can win the presidential election without allying formidable enough to challenge the APC.
Political observers are, however, pessimistic about a possible alliance between Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the last general election, and Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate, because they disagree on who should be the main presidential candidate in such an arrangement.
So far, political momentum favours the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which has continued to win elections.
The opposition is in disarray, weakened, and unable to unite to challenge the APC.
Concerns have recently been raised about the health of the leading opposition parties, notably the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party.
Internal power squabbles have hampered the two parties, leading to a wave of defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
In particular, the defection witnessed in the National Assembly has increased public anxiety about the country’s gradual descent into a one-party state.
President Bola Tinubu will enter his third year of presidency this year. This is his most crucial period to show he deserves a second term. On this note, he will face increased pressure as the politics of the 2027 presidential election take centre stage. Several developments will shape and influence Nigeria in 2025, determining whether or not Tinubu will survive a 2027 challenge to his power.
At the subnational level, the power struggle is already becoming more captivating in states such as Lagos, Kwara, Imo, Ogun, and Oyo, where the incumbent governors are completing their second term. It will come into full force before the end of this year.
LG autonomy
Controversy has followed the Supreme Court’s judgement granting financial autonomy to local government. However, some governors have yet to accept the reality of a new system that would remove the local council’s control.
However, there is an indication that the president may be disposed to finding a political solution to the lingering face-off between the federal and state governments.
In July 2024, the Supreme Court delivered a landmark judgement granting local government administration financial autonomy. Some governors have, however, sought various means to undermine the judgement.
In a renewed effort to find an amicable resolution, the president has been quoted as having dismissed insinuations of any disagreement between Nigeria’s federal and state governments.
In his recent meeting with some governors, he said, “There was gossip that we disagreed on local government autonomy. No. Just drive development at the local government. Nobody wants to take them away from you, but we need collaboration. Let’s do it together and ensure Nigeria is better off for it.
“We will not fight within us. I will drive the change. You control your local governments. You can restore hope by effectively fulfilling what the people expect at the grassroots level.”
President Tinubu also called for stronger collaboration between the federal and state governments to address pressing challenges, including local government autonomy, agricultural productivity, and currency stability. He expressed his commitment to local government development and autonomy.
Rivers crisis
The consequences of the prolonged face-off between the governor of Rivers, Siminalayi Fubara, and the supporters of his estranged godfather, Nyesom Wike, who is now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, will come into full effect this year.
Over some months, pro-Wike lawmakers have threatened to impeach Fubara.
This has remained a subsisting court matter. However, a heightened confrontation could culminate in Governor Fubara’s impeachment, especially if he loses some legal battles that have stopped the lawmakers from taking action in court.
In that event, the state will have a political crisis, which may increase the risk of attacks on oil facilities.
PDP NEC meeting
Under all circumstances, the PDP’s National Executive Committee will convene in February to make significant decisions that impact the party’s peace and stability.
At the last stakeholders’ meeting in November 2024, concerned governors urged the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) to call a National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting by the first week of February 2025 to allow for elaborate consultations with critical party stakeholders.
The call followed an indefinite suspension of the NEC meeting scheduled for November 28, 2024. The incessant postponements of the NEC meeting have been linked to the plot to foil the plot by some aggrieved party members to remove the acting National Chairman, Amb. Umar Damagum.
Since the loss of the last presidential election, the PDP has been embroiled in a leadership crisis.
As a result, the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) has been roundly blamed for the lingering crisis. However, some stakeholders have called for Damagum’s removal to revitalise the party.
But the doomsday has been postponed until the party’s February NEC meeting.
The decision to hold the party’s 99th NEC meeting in the first week of February 2025 was taken at the PDP Governors Forum in Jos, including Damagum and other leaders.
Political watchers want to see the politics playing out during the NEC meeting.
Some people believe that Damagum is being used by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, to fight a proxy war against the sympathisers of the party’s presidential candidate in the last general elections, Atiku Abubakar.
The outcome of the meeting will determine the party’s future in the country’s political arrangement.
Source: The Sun
