There is a point at which an explanation for public hardship becomes part of the hardship itself. For years, Nigerians have been given a familiar catalogue of reasons why petrol prices must keep rising: global crude costs, currency devaluation, subsidy removals, and logistical bottlenecks. Yet, as fuel costs mount across the nation, one fundamental question remains unanswered: how much does each factor actually contribute to the amount citizens pay at the pump?
The Widening Gap in Petrol Prices
Between August 21 and September 12, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its petrol gantry price four times, moving from ₦1,165 to ₦1,350 per litre—a 15.9 per cent increase in just 22 days. However, Nigerians do not buy fuel at the refinery gate. By mid-September, retail prices in Abuja, Lagos, and Ibadan ranged between ₦1,400 and ₦1,450 per litre. The difference between the refinery gate and the retail pump is no longer an abstract accounting exercise; it is direct money out of the consumer’s pocket.
While a private enterprise has every right to set commercial rates, the public deserves clarity on whether these adjustments stem from genuine production costs. On September 8, the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria estimated the petrol landing cost at ₦1,311.36 per litre. Meanwhile, Dangote’s gantry price stood at ₦1,265 before climbing to ₦1,350 four days later. These figures reflect different points in the supply chain, but the rapid shifts make the underlying arithmetic impossible to ignore.
What was the refinery’s crude acquisition cost? How much crude came through domestic supply deals? What exchange rate applied, and what margins were added along the way? The public currently lacks the data to answer these questions. This is not an accusation against any single company; it is a systemic transparency problem. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is now too central to the national energy sector for its commercial decisions to escape public scrutiny. It should neither be romanticised nor demonised—it must be examined.
Examining NNPC and Foreign Exchange Pressures
The same demand for transparency applies to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited. The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative reported that NNPC imported 14.53 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit in 2023 at a cost of ₦6.74 trillion, while generating ₦3.73 trillion in revenue. This left an under-recovery of ₦3.01 trillion. NNPC attributed this shortfall to the gap between regulated pump rates and actual import costs. Even with subsidy removal, multi-trillion naira discrepancies require independent reconciliation so that Nigerians can understand the true financial picture.
Currency reforms have further compounded the issue. The 2023 exchange rate adjustments altered the naira cost of dollar-linked petroleum inputs just as subsidies vanished. Yet, foreign exchange fluctuations cannot become a catch-all excuse. If the naira weakens, the resulting cost should be clearly calculable; if it appreciates, the relief should be traceable. Without clear breakdowns, consumers absorb combined price hikes without knowing what caused them.
Crude Supply Bottlenecks in the Deregulated Market
Domestic crude supply arrangements reveal additional structural friction. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that 61.9 million barrels of crude were allocated to domestic refineries in early 2026, but actual delivery reached only 28.5 million barrels. Pricing gaps between producers and refiners within the willing-buyer, willing-seller framework caused the shortfall. When local facilities cannot secure allocated crude, they must seek alternative supplies or operate below capacity, adding costs that ultimately fall on Nigerians.
This is why regulatory bodies must act alongside market players. In a deregulated market, the government stops fixing prices, but it retains responsibility for ensuring fair competition and consumer protection. A market only functions efficiently when participants have options and regulators can address unfair practices.
In June 2026, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) noted that retail price reductions had not matched sharp drops in global crude costs, warning against exploitation. While the FCCPC does not set prices in a deregulated market, its observation points to a structural failure: the lack of a system that verifies whether price shifts have legitimate commercial causes.
Demanding Accountability for Nigerians
Ultimately, the issue is not about proving wrongdoing by refiners, marketers, or state agencies. It is about establishing a transparent system where price formation can be verified. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) must break down downstream market economics, the NUPRC should confirm physical crude deliveries, and the NNPC must reconcile its accounts publicly.
The public has borne the burden of policy reforms, currency devaluation, and market shifts. As retail costs push past ₦1,450 per litre while refinery gate prices sit at ₦1,350, the country owes its citizens more than repeated assertions that market forces are at work. Nigerians deserve a clear, verifiable breakdown of the numbers driving fuel prices.
