Like many citizens, I remain optimistic about the possibilities of a better tomorrow for our country. Hope is deeply embedded in our national character. We endure setbacks, yet we continue to believe that renewal is possible. However, optimism should never replace reality; it must be tested against evidence and performance. It is from this standpoint that I reflect on the NNPC Ltd and its critical role in our national energy security.
Few institutions matter more to the Nigerian state. Recent developments show how strategic energy institutions can be when they are properly managed. The emergence of the Dangote Refinery has already altered the local energy calculus. Despite well-known controversies, the commissioning of a large, integrated refinery helps reduce Nigeria’s exposure to external shocks and improves fuel availability. Its impact illustrates what clarity of purpose and scale can achieve. It also serves as a reminder that institutional performance, not intent, is what ultimately reshapes outcomes.
Structural Hurdles in the Nigerian Energy Sector
NNPC Ltd sits at the centre of public finance, foreign exchange earnings, and investor confidence. For decades, petroleum revenues have provided the fiscal oxygen on which the government depends. Agriculture no longer carries the economy as it once did, and manufacturing remains weak. In practical terms, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. That is why the future of this company is inseparable from the future of Nigeria itself.
When the current leadership team, led by Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari and the board chaired by Musa Ahmadu-Kida, assumed office, many expected a decisive break from the past. The hope was that a commercially run company, backed by the Petroleum Industry Act, would finally emerge from the ruins of bureaucracy and political patronage. I shared that hope. After observing developments over the past year, however, I have become more cautious.
The issue is not about personalities; it is structural. Nigeria has attempted to create a modern company while preserving an old political control model. That contradiction lies at the heart of the company’s difficulties.
Governance and Petroleum Reform
In theory, the institution belongs to Nigerians. In practice, governing authority rests largely with the presidency. This creates layered ownership and diffused accountability. Such a model rarely produces transformational institutions. Boards struggle to exercise independent authority when ultimate political power lies elsewhere. Management teams find themselves constrained by political calculations and administrative caution.
This helps explain why many operational weaknesses remain. Joint ventures are often less effective than they should be, and asset optimisation remains slow.
The greatest tragedy is that Nigeria is not suffering from a lack of resources; it is suffering from underperformance.
The appointment of Mr Fola Adeola to lead a presidential task force on the Nigerian energy sector is telling. A task force is rarely convened where systems are working. Yet, the composition of this group raises questions about the continuity of petroleum reform. Institutions require memory, precedent, and hard-won experience. How this task force will reconcile competing interests and translate its diagnosis into execution remains unclear. It is an experiment that warrants close observation.
Moving Beyond Personalities
Nigeria should be targeting higher crude production while aggressively expanding gas supply for domestic power and exports. Yet, ambition without institutional capacity is merely rhetoric. To succeed, governance must be clarified. Ownership and accountability cannot remain blurred. The board must have genuine authority, and management must be empowered to act commercially, insulated from routine political intrusion.
I am not an incurable pessimist. From all available records, one year is too short a period to objectively assess the performance of Bayo Ojulari and his team. The scale of dysfunction inherited means no serious transformation could have been completed in such a short time. To his credit, there are signs of pragmatism, specifically in the willingness to address the burden of stranded downstream assets.
Yet, realism alone is not enough. The progress visible so far is insufficient to justify high praise, but it is also too early to pronounce failure. My greater concern is whether the approaching political cycle will deny management the focus required to succeed. NNPC Ltd remains too important to be trapped between old inefficiencies and new distractions. Its success will strengthen national stability; its failure will deepen the pressures already facing the country. For now, judgment should remain reserved, but performance must remain the only true measure.
*Dan D Kunle writes from Abuja
